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The second is to build something interesting with your team. We have the development team at in-house, and everyone except me and Du is from a technical background, so we do some interesting things on our own. We often build up some interesting ideas. For example, after reading Arbitrum's sequencer Down some time ago, we found that it was a single-thread sequencer, so we wrote an open source parallel sequencer to contribute to the community. In addition, we thought that Sequencer of layer2 might need some stress tests, so we made a stress test tool, did a stress test on Scroll, and submitted a report to them. In the future, we will also do a lot of interesting infrastructure, in addition to the use of our own, or open source contribution to the community.

It was also 13 years ago that Simon told me about bitcoin. He said, BMAN, you must know bitcoin. It is the freest currency in human history. I bought my first bitcoin when I was a student. In 2015, my best friend in university asked me whether we should start a business together. The next day, I bought a plane ticket and flew to Beijing to start a business with my good brother.

The latest 24 hours of image frames comprising the Northern and Southern hemisphere loops (with time-tagged file names) are available: Northern, Southern

I think it is possible to imagine that in a virtual space, the so-called meta-universe, the virtual space assets of most people around us are already greater than the assets in the real world, and the attention and time spent in the virtual world are much more than the real world, so there will be a lot of new assets, which will let Crypto into the real 3.0.

These links provide a discussion of the aurora phenomena and tips for the best opportunities to view aurora at various locations around the world.

As Ethereum generates greater demand, the demand for Crypto will increase further. Judging from the market, I think almost this month or two will see the dawn, today more will be in a shock period, a period of preparation.

BMAN:Then I would like to introduce myself first. I am BMAN. I contacted Crypto in 2013. Ten years ago, when I was a student, I met Simon Black, an investor, in Lithuania, Europe, and then joined his investment team as analyst. Simon is a legendary investor who first studied intelligence at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point and later joined the Iraq War. It turned out to be a typical American soldier who went to Iraq and felt cheated by the country he was serving when his comrades died on the front lines. He felt ashamed to invade other countries for the sake of oil. He gave up his American citizenship and left the United States to become a world citizen. He went to more than 120 countries successively and made investments all over the world.

BMAN:I'm still on the optimistic side. Ethereum has just completed the Shanghai upgrade, and I predict that the demand for Ethereum will increase greatly after the upgrade. Because we talked to a lot of institutions, a lot of people thought there would be a lot of selling after the Shanghai upgrade, that someone would redeem Ethereum and sell it in the market, but we found just the opposite. Of course, after the Shanghai upgrade, having enough liquidity is a prerequisite for many large mainstream institutions to get their money in, they feel that it is safer, they can be more open and they have enough flexible ways to exit.

BMAN:Frankly speaking, I read the domain name of Lao Du, ABCDE is the coolest, from the point of view of the brand will remember. When we designed the brand, we made it like Tetris, block by block, building the next generation of the Internet. ABCDE can also be interpreted in various ways, such as "A blockchain-Centric Development Ecosystem". My favorite name of ABCDE is simply because it is a very interesting, Crypto and native name.

BMAN:In fact, I think it is just the end of the beginning. The innovation curve has several processes, such as early adopter, early majority, and now it is about to enter the stage of early majority. If we compare it to the Internet, the Internet only reached 400 million users in 1999, so there was a lot of entrepreneurial opportunity, but it really took a very elite, forward-looking entrepreneur to take advantage of that opportunity.The bar is higher today, but I think it is only the beginning of the end of the generation of entrepreneurship wave, not the end of the end.

Auroral data in a grided format for the entire Earth is available in compressed JSON format:  The latest JSON file is available as well.

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BlockBeats: Many people say that the next cycle will be in the next 10 years, and more opportunities for the Web3 industry will be reserved for Top tier entrepreneurs or developers with strong technical capabilities. What changes or preparations do you think individual investors can make? This mentality is not as before to buy what a coin, and then wait for it to earn back ten times one hundred times this.

The demographic dividend of Crypto is just like the leaves on the tree. Our judgment is that Crypto will become more and more accessible, more and more popular, and more and more lush to reach 1 billion users. From an investment point of view we're looking at Dev infra or user interfaces that drive massive adoption, and the two most important things we're going to look at are NFT, not just pfp NFT, but Utility NFT, Including things like NFT for tickets, Pass, Gaming, will be an important vehicle for metaverse in the future. The other is transaction types, because Crypto's most native application is transactions.

BlockBeats: In this way, Crypto is less likely to appear in the future, as in 2017, when macro markets fell miserably, completely ignoring the whole economic background.

BMAN: It's not going to be an asset that's generated by AI, it's going to be an asset that's really scarce behind all the stuff that's generated by AI. For example, the model might be an asset, the user data might be an asset, the closed loop of the scenario might be an asset. When content is no longer a scarce thing, the scarce element behind that content is an asset.

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This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora.  This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora.  The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth.

BMAN:I think the most important thing for individual investors today is to keep up with some important trends and then make good allocations to them. I myself am very optimistic about the future trend of human beings entering virtual space. In terms of the attention span of human beings, most of us have already spent most of our attention and time in virtual space. When AI content production is no longer difficult, the barrier to entry for humans into virtual space will be further lowered. The last generation of AR glasses, VR this kind of equipment are basically ok, but the biggest problem is that there is no content. But today AIGC makes content production extremely easy, and I think it's going to be a big explosion of metaverse and virtual space content. This explosion of content will further encourage us to focus our time and attention on virtual space. The content explosion will also create an asset explosion, as attention and time become vehicles for settling down and turn into assets. So I am very optimistic about the virtual space and metaverse generated by this wave of AIGCs, and then Crypto will serve as the carrier and distribution of the underlying rights and values.

In 2016, NOAA SWPC shared the operational OVATION code (written in IDL) with the UK Met Office in the UK.   The UK Met Office converted the OVATION model from IDL to Python.

BlockBeats: I just heard BMAN talking about his own experience. Everything he has done since he was a student is very cutting-edge, including AI in Baidu. When you do things or choose a new direction, what drives you and how do you choose these new things?

So what is really scarce? When all of this is made extremely easy, creativity is scarce, the ability to form new understandings is scarce, the ability to combine these things into an unprecedented experience is scarce, and the ability to form new assets is scarce.

AuroraLeague

BlockBeats: Many people or institutions have a view that they are very optimistic about the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, they will be very cautious because of the liquidity or interest rate rise. Do you agree with this view, BMAN?

We started a marketing technology company called Li Xiaoshou, which tried to write ads using AI, and sold it to Baidu in 2017. After that, I also worked on AI in Baidu for one year. I also tried to produce the content of today's AIGC model in Baidu. Basically, I used the same model to generate advertisements, which improved the conversion rate of advertisements. Thanks for my experience in Baidu for one year, which made me stand at the forefront of large technology wave. At the end of 2017, I thought Crypto would be a great opportunity, so I left Baidu and went all in Crypto.

So to sum up, when it comes to technology dividends, I look at modular stack, ZK, Dev infra and other new infrastructure, as well as various head projects in ecology. For the demographic dividend we look at NFT and transactive-user ports for massive adoption.

The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies.  The aurora directly impacts HF radio communication and GPS/GNSS satellite navigation.  It is closely related to the ground induce currents that impact electric power transition.

According to our own judgment, Crypto has an important trend in both population and technology. In terms of demographic dividend, we judge that Crypto will reach 1 billion users in 2026. Secondly, in terms of technology dividend, a large number of underlying technologies have entered the outbreak and large-scale application period, including modular technology stack and the landing of ZK application scenarios. Not only the expansion and privacy we see today, but also AIGC combined with Crypto technology. A large number of technologies will enter the dividend period of landing application.

Last June, BMAN announced that he had partnered with Huobi co-founder Du Jun to create ABCDE Capital, which will focus on supporting Web3 builders. Du Jun diversified allocation after selling Huobi, reorganized listed company New Fire Technology in Hong Kong, carried out SAAS, media, developer ecology and primary market direct investment layout in Singapore, and BMAN launched $400 million focused on Crypto early ABCDE, It is a prominent "Capital With Ecosystem" in Asia Pacific, providing end-to-end support for first-line founders around the world, including capital, traffic, transactions, licenses, developers and other ecological resources. ABCDE includes Xinhuo Technology, a company listed on the main board of Hong Kong, ChainUP, a Singaporean SAAS company, Huobi, and Cointime, a media company. It has a dual-center layout in Singapore and Hong Kong. And set up a 5,000-square-foot offline Crypto Accelerator hub at One Raffles Place in the heart of Singapore, which stands for "blockchain centric development ecosystem."

BlockBeats: Some of my friends who work in Wall Street or who study macro often tell me that the dollar is not sustainable because it is difficult to pay off debts, so there will be some problems. They don't think the Fed's system is sustainable, which means it's going to stop raising rates next year, but it's probably going to be a very bad one. Since the SVB crash, people have become a little more aware of Bitcoin, which I am quite impressed by. When the banking credit system is in trouble, people may have to migrate to assets like gold or bitcoin. But I don't know if an asset can hold that much money, or if it can hold that much value. A few days ago, I was talking with a person, he told me that if the value of bitcoin is too high, the profit of miners will be reduced after it is halved, the difficulty of calculation will be reduced, there will be hackers and so on, so he is not very optimistic about the future security of bitcoin. All kinds of factors add up to make me feel a little pessimistic. BMAN, how do you think Bitcoin can withstand this huge amount of money in the future?

Aurorain the sky

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BMAN:In my mind, I love innovation from the bottom of my heart. I want to innovate in everything I do, and I want to do something different, including making failed derivatives transactions and leveraged ETFs. I like to communicate with entrepreneurs who explore unexplored territory and love innovation from the bottom of my heart, so I think my most suitable job is investment. I never get tired of communicating with people who are doing entrepreneurship and innovation.

The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth’s magnetic pole.  The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense.  The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. The aurora is not visible during daylight hours.  The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a 1000 km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right.

BMAN:Yes, from an investment point of view every round of innovation has to find new forms of assets, but the bar for issuing assets, or capturing the value of assets, is higher today. That means you become an asset company in the meta-universe, it's not going to be as easy as IC0. To become an IP company like Yuga Labs, or to build a virtual world scenario, is to have the ability to form real assets. But today with AIGC, it is possible to use AI to generate text, pictures, and even we talk about companies using prompt to form various scenes, this infra of the future metaverse will make the whole process extremely easy.

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Including energy, including the new energy breakthroughs Musk is pushing, the marginal cost of energy in the future will be almost zero, which is a very scary inflection point to think about. The marginal cost of energy is 0, and the marginal cost of intelligence is 0, which will bring AI into the infinite singularity, because AI has access to all the intelligence on the human network. When there is infinite energy to enable it to generate new knowledge with itself constantly, the things it can produce will be very scary. It's like a species explosion.

As one of the OG's in the crypto world in China, BMAN has been in the circle for 10 years, traversed multiple cycles, witnessed the waves and ups and downs of Chinese Web3 globalization, and accumulated a profound understanding of the industry. At the same time, BMAN's previous entrepreneurial experience in Web2 and his experience in building companies worth hundreds of millions of dollars through the two technology waves of Web2 and Web3 also make him the "entrepreneur behind the entrepreneur" with hands-on practical experience. Outside of the crypto mindset, he believes in global citizenship and freedom, as do most Web3 believers, but he also believes that Web3 needs a super application to provide an integrated service solution that allows more people to participate, which may go against the gut of many Web3 people.

On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable.  In those instances, an alternative estimate of the solar wind forcing, based on the current Kp geomagnetic index is used to drive the OVATION  model.  When this occurs, there is no forecast lead time.

Why did I set up ABCDE? In addition to what I said just now, what I love most is doing innovation and cutting-edge exploration in this industry. In fact, it was 12 years ago that Du entered Crypto, and 13 years ago that I entered Crypto. Ten years ago, many people would have asked what bitcoin and Crypto were, and what value did it bring to society? I find it embarrassing that people still ask me this question today, and still ask what value Crypto brings to humanity.

BMAN:I myself am very optimistic, as we have just discussed what is scarce in the future of mankind. When the marginal cost of content is almost zero, content is no longer scarce, not even intelligence, not even knowledge. Since AI has broken human language, it is equivalent to breaking all the knowledge base in human history after learning language. All the knowledge on the Internet has become easier to access, and even the intelligence of the Internet is no longer scarce.

BMAN:The content produced by these AIGCs will form new scenes, which will precipitate new assets in the future, and the transfer, ownership, trading and allocation of assets will be carried out on the Crypto. Talk to some AI teams and a lot of them end up using Crypto as the underlying value layer. In fact, Crypto is naturally suitable as the underlying design value layer of AI, because the Smart Contract of Crypto is most suitable as the Contract between machines, AI and AI. It can be used as a machine-to-machine agreement, confirmation and allocation, so it is well suited to be the bottom layer of AI production relations.

BMAN:It means that we practitioners haven't done anything in ten years. In addition to opening some casinos and doing some self-recycling things, what has changed in the end? What value is created? I think we need projects and applications that can really bring change and breakthrough to the real world. We also have an obligation to find and support these real entrepreneurs.

BMAN:Wall Street will associate Crypto with high technology. In their eyes, Crypto is still a technological product, so it will be more closely associated with the trend of high-tech companies. The second is in the last cycle, Musk had a lot of interaction with Crypto, wood sister a lot of their fund allocation is Crypto company. These associations and consensus caused Wall Street or institutional funds will be in accordance with the way technology stocks to allocate Crypto.

If Crypto assets can't be further broken through, it may enter a standstill, but AIGC will bring a new type of carrier or new type of asset explosion, because it will produce a lot of content, there will be a lot of asset precipitation. For example, in the future a model may itself be an NFT. Recently, we saw an ERC 6551, which set up an account for NFT. For example, in the future, a company will be an NFT, and the NFT itself will have an account, and then all the profits from the company's revenue will be attributed to the NFT account, and then trading a company will become as simple as trading an NFT.

BMAN:These days I feel very lively, at least to give Chinese entrepreneurs a home. Jerusalem is the Promised Land of the Jews. It may not be clear today whether Hong Kong is Jerusalem or not, but at least you have a place to settle down. I think this is a good thing for all Chinese entrepreneurs.

Auroraborealis

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For many people, the aurora is a beautiful nighttime phenomenon that is worth traveling to arctic regions just to observe.  It is the only way for most people to actually experience space weather.

AuroraStore

I often communicate with my team that when intelligence and energy are not scarce, there is one thing that is clearly scarce, which is Bitcoin and Ethereum that determine its scarcity from the code level. In the future they may become a truly scarce thing in the new era, and no amount of intelligence, no amount of energy may be able to change its scarcity. So let us worry that when humans enter such an era, only the truly scarce things can carry value. Will the carrier of value still be today's fiat currency? They will not be scarce things, only really scarce things, can carry great value.

In terms of atmosphere, I think it's still much worse than ETHDenver. ETHDenver has a lot of developers, but in Hong Kong there are probably more VCS. However, I am still very positive and admire the courage of the Hong Kong government. At least I think it will make many talents willing to go to Hong Kong to settle down, because the place where the talents go is the place where there are opportunities in the future. If you look at only one indicator, look at the number and speed of talent inflow in a place. Now what the world can see, at least in Asia, is a continuous influx of Singapore. The United States is always the gathering place of talents from all over the world, so can Hong Kong continue to attract talents and settle down here? At least in terms of actions and policies, we can see the sincerity of the Hong Kong government, looking forward to more innovation in Hong Kong.

BMAN:We're very aggressive, we're very aggressive, we're very aggressive, we're very aggressive, we're very aggressive. ABCDE began to cast last September, half a year about 12, basically are the lead. At the moment we are talking about three or four potential lead projects, probably at a pace of two projects a month, but recently we may accelerate a little bit.

BlockBeats: Just now we mentioned the end of the demographic dividend. I have communicated with OG or some powerful leaders in other industries in the past two days. Everyone also mentioned that the Crypto industry will have fewer and fewer opportunities for individuals or retail investors, or even almost no space for retail investors. It's not like in '17 or earlier, when everybody was in a very retail state, there would be ten times, one hundred times the opportunity. They think there will be fewer opportunities in the next cycle because it will be some VC or Big institution that is a Big Player in this industry. What do you think of that view?

AuroraCity

BMAN:If we compare Crypto to a tree, we will mainly use roots and leaves. Why is such a metaphor, we have two trends to judge the next Crypto.

Economic crisis can be divided into several stages. The first stage is debt default. If the debt default spreads to the real economy, it will become an economic crisis; if the economic crisis spreads further, it may become a currency crisis. If the day comes when a major currency undergoes this kind of debt default, slowly seeping into a currency crisis, that may be the day when the Crypto really explodes in a big way.

AuroraLoL

Crypto today has come to the eve of crossing the chasm, has 400 million holder, the future 2026 will reach 1 billion users, so this is actually the end of a demographic dividend.The essence of investment is to capture the dividend of the trend, the most important of which are demographic dividend and technological dividend.

I was very lucky to seize the great bull market cycle in 2017. Since then, I have been in Crypto and made many investments and trading platforms. I have been successful and failed. Up to now, I think what I love most is to do cutting-edge exploration with some very innovative entrepreneurs in Crypto. So last year, Du and I were on the balcony of his house, looking out over the bay of Singapore and we talked all night, and we hit it off and we decided to start ABCDE together.

Aurorapronunciation

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BlockBeats: The assets generated by AI in the future may not be in the form that most people can imagine. What else is there except some pictures generated by GPT?

Because I've been watching Crypto evolve over the last 10 years from '13 to' 23, essentially the development of assets. 1.0 was Bitcoin, 2.0 was the asset explosion brought by Ethereum, but after DeFi summer found Crypto into a bottleneck, there is a 2.5 is NFT, it brought some new assets, but not completely to 3.0, because the small picture can not represent a new asset, I kept thinking, what is 3.0 going to be?

Two is the end of the dollar interest rate hike this year, next year will enter the cycle of interest rate cuts, of course, the pace of interest rate cuts will be slower;

The Hemispheric Power Index, an estimate of the total auroral energy input at each pole,  is available in ASCII format: latest HPI

BlockBeats: We also talked with some Kols yesterday, but they may be more inclined to the perspective of pure currency, and think that the next cycle will be from the perspective of asset issuance to shake up the market. From this level, there is some correlation with the innovation of asset form mentioned by BMAN boss.

Because of the resonance of these three cycles, we are very optimistic about the opportunity in 2024, so that is why we set up ABCDE in 2022 at the worst time, because we want to support some of the key niche companies at the worst time, can help them grow into great companies in the next bull market.

BMAN:I am in charge of investment for ABCDE, while Lao Du is in charge of resource layout. Therefore, I have two main tasks with the team at ordinary times. One is to talk about projects.

The Auroral Forecast product is based on the OVATION Prime model developed by P. Newell at the Johns Hopkins, Applied Physics Laboratory.

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The third is that the US will enter a new election cycle next year, and some measures will be taken to stimulate the economy. The US stock market may perform better. Because Crypto with the United States technology stocks still have a great degree of correlation.

BlockBeats: New players may not know much about ABCDE fund including BMAN's past experience, let's ask the boss of BMAN to talk about himself.

Auroraage

In 2013, Newell upgraded the OVATION Prime model so that it would more accurately capture large geomagnetic storms.   The original model, based solely on DMSP data, was only reliable to Kp of 7.   By adding data from the NASA TIMED GUVI instrument, Newell et al., were able to expand the model to include the larger storm values of Kp of 8 and 9.

When we look at the investment in Web2 period, the huge opportunities are either to seize the demographic dividend in the process of users changing from non-Internet population to Internet population, or to seize the technological dividend in the application period including smart phones, AI, 5G and other technologies. Therefore, in the Crypto of investment, the most important thing for us to think about is how to seize the demographic dividend and technological dividend, which are just like the root and leaves of a tree.

BlockBeats: BMAN, just now you mentioned the linkage between Crypto and US stocks. Is it because many traditional funds are really all in there, or is it because people just look at US stocks to buy this way?

In 2011, NOAA (NCEI and SWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora.  Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model.   Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts.

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BlockBeats: How does BMAN think about this Web3 conference? Do you think Hong Kong can do Web3? Need or not? Many people say that Hong Kong wants to retain its capital. Do you think Web3 will really help Hong Kong?

If Crypto is a tree, Crypro's technology trend is the root of a tree. The roots will be more and more vertical, more and more segmented, more and more hardcore, to solve the problem of vertical field. For example, we recently invested in ZK's hardware acceleration project, Cysic. We even look at chip projects, including ZK's interoperability project, Polyhedra, and ZK machine learning, which is very cutting-edge. The application of technology dividend has to look for subdivided scenes, so from the technical dimension, it will dig deeper and thinner like the root of a tree.

The OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) model  is an empirical model of the intensity of the aurora developed at the Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory by Patrick Newell and co-workers1.   The model uses the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field measured at the L1 orbit position at 1.6 million km (1 million miles) upstream from earth as input and calculates three types of electron precipitation and the proton precipitation which strongly correlate with the aurora.   An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the Ultraviolet imager (UVI) instrument on the NASA Polar satellite(2).

BMAN:I don't think we can rule out a big consensus explosion from the currency crisis. There have been waves of this going back in history, such as the Crypto boom that followed the run on Cyprus in 2013. Increasingly, countries like Argentina, Peru, even El Salvador and, most recently, Silicon Valley Bank. Each collapse of traditional finance, as written in Bitcoin's creation block, creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, each time creating an enhanced loop that enhances more consensus.

In 2020, NOAA SWPC implemented the new version of the OVATION Prime model into operations.   This version has been dubbed OVATION 2020.